Dr. Jesse Simpson Ph.D. Dissertation
Predicting the adoption of connected autonomous vehicles by transportation organizations using peer effects
This dissertation presents and tests a methodology for predicting the adoption rate of Connected Autonomous Trucks (CATs) in transportation organizations using peer effects. There are a number of different factors that must be considered when developing innovation adoption models for organizations. This dissertation briefly describes each of the relevant variables and combines them into a discrete choice model for predicting the adoption rate of CATs by transportation organizations. The model incorporates new peer effect modeling techniques to simulate competition and the informal communication network. A stated-preference survey is conducted, and information from 400 freight transportation organizations is gathered. The survey focuses on two hypothetical CAT adoption scenarios; the first scenario loosely describes a level 3 autonomous vehicle, and the second scenario describes a level 4 autonomous vehicle which is introduced 10 years after the first generation of CATs are made available. By analyzing the responses to these scenarios, we are able to generate a prediction for how quickly freight transportation organizations will choose to test and adopt CATs. Smaller organizations were far more likely to reject CATs than larger organizations, and almost all of the responses agreed that the first generation of CATs are a high-risk investment. Despite this, roughly 30% of organizations claim that they plan to fully adopt and integrate CATs into their fleet as soon as they are made available and safe.
Publications
- Simpson, J. R., & Mishra, S. (2020). Developing a methodology to predict the adoption rate of Connected Autonomous Trucks in transportation organizations using peer effects. Research in Transportation Economics, 100866.
- Simpson, J. R., Mishra, S., Talebian, A., & Golias, M. M. (2019). An estimation of the future adoption rate of autonomous trucks by freight organizations. Research in Transportation Economics, 76, 100737.
- Simpson, J., and Mishra, S. (2020). Developing a Methodology to Predict the Adoption Rate of Connected Autonomous Trucks in Transportation Organizations Using Peer Effects. Presentation at 99th Annual Board Meeting of Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C.
- Simpson, J., and Mishra, S. (2019). The adoption of connected autonomous vehicles and other innovations by freight transportation organizations. Compendium of Papers in 98th Annual Board Meeting of Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C.
- Simpson, J., Mishra, S., Talebian, A., and Golias, M. (2019). Disaggregated prediction of the adoption rate of autonomous trucks by freight organizations. Compendium of Papers in 98th Annual Board Meeting of Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C.